2013 was a year he'd rather forget, and frankly, so would we. He was actually alright at the plate in 88 games, hitting .279 with a .322 OBP. However, by the end of April, you could see something was not right. He hobbled along, vaguely resembling a man with a prosthetic hips and a bum knee while in motion. By May, it was painful, and by the end of June, the Jays finally screamed uncle, and put him on the 15-day DL. They hoped the time off could help heal him, but he returned to the same results. It was bad. The tipping point was a series in Anaheim, where he was horrendous in left field, in the spacious outfield at Angels Ballpark.
All these things added up to a -0.9 WAR in 88 games, or a about -1.75 wins above replacement in a full season, bordering on Maicer Izturis territory.
These great tweets by @BlueMetropolis kind of sum things up.
A happy Melky is a motorized Melky #BlueJays pic.twitter.com/f0aH0KLQ2g
— BlueMetropolis (@BlueMetropolis) August 2, 2013
Is that... Melky O'Houlihan from Dodgeball? #AHappyMelkyIsAMotorizedMelky pic.twitter.com/an84avbBt8
— BlueMetropolis (@BlueMetropolis) August 2, 2013
New developments at Rogers Centre #BlueJays pic.twitter.com/hlCKuMzZeN
— BlueMetropolis (@BlueMetropolis) August 2, 2013
Also, this .gif kind of does as well.
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| No, this isn't in slow motion. |
After that, the Jays shut him down for the rest of the year.
In November, doctors finally found the cause of the mobility issues: A tumour the size of a chick pea implanted in his spine.
After an offseason of rehab, lots of questions had been raised. Is he fully healthy? How is his range? Should he still be in the outfield? How well can he run the bases?
As Spring Training is winding down, it appears a bounce back season for Melky Cabrera is imminent.
So far, he is 23-53 (.434), with 8 doubles. He has only struck out five times, and has a stolen base (!), and has thrown out a runner at the plate. I have only seen glimpses of him so far, and while he's no Jose Reyes out there, he can beat Jose Molina in a foot race now.
Clearly, things are looking up for the Jays left fielder, who will likely bat second behind Jose Reyes, and in front of Bautista and Encarnacion. But what does a healthy Melky Cabrera mean to the Toronto Blue Jays?
Below is a table which shows the Jays WAR by position, and where they ranked in 2013.
| Position | WAR | Ranking |
| C | -1.1 | 29th |
| 1B | 6.0 | 3rd |
| 2B | -2.1 | 30th |
| SS | 3.0 | 12th |
| 3B | -0.7 | 28th |
| LF | 0.0 | 26th |
| CF | 4.5 | 10th |
| RF | 5.7 | 6th |
| DH | 6.0 | 1st |
The Jays weren't by any means crippled by their left field production last year, but they didn't get any help. They performed at replacement level, which is considered someone who you call up from the minors when your star is injured, making the MLB minimum of $400,000. The Jays paid $8M alone to Melky, so it's fair to say they didn't get their money's worth.
But where were their shortcomings in the left field position?
| Metric | Value | Ranking |
| Average | .261 | 9th |
| OBP | .304 | 26th |
| SLG | .370 | 22nd |
| wRC+ | 84 | 27th |
| Off | -12.0 | 23rd |
| Def | -20.6 | 24th |
Obviously, the two most important things for the Jays, namely Melky Cabrera, to improve on in left field, would be OBP, as he's hitting in front of Bautista and EE, and defense, because it was a shitshow last year at times. The Jays UZR in LF last year (a metric which quantifies runs saved, or lack thereof) was -25.1, which means they lost 25 runs because of left field defense.
The three main methods of projection FG uses are ZiPS, Steamer and Oliver. I do not know how they are calculated, and obviously they aren't a guarantee, but all three project Melky to get an OBP of around .330-.340, which means 1 in 3 times he will get on ahead of Bautista and Encarnacion.
After the disaster of last year, and the questions surrounding starting pitching, a healthy Melky Cabrera will help the Jays produce more runs, and will save them more in the field.
Thanks to @BlueMetropolis for letting me use his tweets.
Follow @BlueMetropolis
Note: All metrics used in this post are from FanGraphs.
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